Monthly Review - November 2025
In brief
The markets
0.1%
0.0%
0.4%
0.1%
-0.5%
2.1%
0.0%
2.7%
1.4%
Source: Bloomberg 28.11.2025, returns in local currency
Top stories
Bubble or wobble?
Talk of a tech bubble swirled around markets, as big tech companies unleashed a barrage of capex plans. Their target is to accelerate the build out of AI (artificial intelligence) capacity. As more, and more massive, plans were announced, markets questioned when returns on the investment might be achieved. Oracle and Meta were punished on overspending concerns. Some more speculative assets were dumped, and cryptocurrency markets suffered a $1 trillion rout. The bout of volatility was tempered sporadically by hopes of a Fed (US Federal Reserve) rate cut in December.
Disappearing data
The longest ever US government shutdown ended, but its impact looked set to drag on. September labour market updates, showing a slight pickup in unemployment, were finally released in mid-November. And some October data points are unlikely ever to be published. This matters, as it leaves the Fed attempting to navigate a way through a ‘data fog’, unable to judge the current outlook for the US economy. Market volatility mounted, in response to this lack of clarity. While in futures markets, the odds of a December Fed rate cut swung wildly between 30% and 100%.
Nvidia sales surge
Nvidia’s forecasts of stratospheric growth in demand for its AI chips were pushed even higher. The jump comes with accelerating demand for the data centres which run AI technology. Nvidia has so far been the winner of the AI boom, with a 90% market share in chips, leading to its sky high margins and valuation. However, the share price was hit when Google announced a preference for its own chips within its latest Gemini AI model. The setback was tagged as another ‘DeepSeek moment’. Meanwhile, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang suggested China might ultimately win the AI race, due to cheaper energy and looser regulation.
Rainforest COP results
At COP30 in the Brazilian rainforest, former US Vice President Al Gore accused Saudi Arabia of employing "blocking tactics" to undermine meaningful climate action, condemning the kingdom’s sturdy defence of its oil and gas revenues. Whereas nearly 200 countries pledged to transition away from fossil fuels by 2050 at COP28 two years ago, now there remain dozens of countries advocating a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. The matter has not been tabled on the formal COP agenda, however, and discussions are happening on the sidelines. As negotiations moved forward, the push for a fossil-fuel roadmap remained deeply contested.
On the radar
With key data releases in the US either delayed or cancelled, policymakers will struggle to gauge underlying economic conditions with any accuracy. This will moderate expectations of further monetary easing at the US Federal Reserve meeting in early December.
As diplomatic efforts to advance President Donald Trump’s latest Ukraine peace deal unfold behind closed doors, early signals from Kyiv and Brussels appear broadly positive. Attention will now turn to Moscow, as the world cautiously awaits Russia’s response to the emerging framework.
Recently appointed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced her first major policy initiative, unveiling a sweeping US$135 billion stimulus package to boost the economy. The deal is set to include rice coupons, cash handouts for parents and energy subsidies for households.