Monthly Review - June 2026
In brief
The markets
-1.1%
2.7%
3.3%
4.6%
-0.4%
6.0%
0.8%
3.0%
0.9%
Source: Bloomberg 30.06.2026, returns in local currency
Top stories
Conflict resolution moves markets
A Memorandum of Understanding regarding an end to the Middle East conflict triggered a risk-on rally. The Strait of Hormuz, the crucial channel for 20% of global oil supply, was re-opened and oil prices fell back towards pre-conflict levels. Equity markets across the world touched record highs, buoyed by the prospect of a check to inflation, as well as by hopes that AI investment would continue at pace. Nonetheless, bouts of equity market volatility were triggered by tech sector newsflow. While chipmaker Micron reported stellar results and huge demand growth, Apple announced product price hikes, due to the scarcity of these vital components.
New regime at the Fed
Kevin Warsh gave his first press conference as chair of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), after interest rates were left unchanged. He promised to respond to inflationary pressures, following the recent oil price spike. Markets concluded that the next move in interest rates would likely be up, causing bond yields to rise, and bond prices to fall along with highly valued tech stocks. Warsh hinted that the Fed would “say less” in the future, prompting fears of market confusion and volatility spikes. And the Fed's ‘dotplot’ estimates of the future path of interest rates now look set to become a thing of the past.
A volatile lift off
The market launch of SpaceX, the rockets to AI group founded by Elon Musk, was met with massive demand from investors and index tracking funds. The market capitalisation soared towards $3 trillion, leapfrogging Amazon and briefly also Microsoft, and making Musk the first ever US dollar trillionaire. The share price later fell back with a bump on concerns that higher fed fund rates could prompt lower tech sector valuations. Meanwhile, AI rival OpenAI filed for its own listing, at a value of around $1 trillion, although a delay until 2027 was later rumoured.
Strong demand for China's green IPO
Hot on the heels of SpaceX's record-breaking debut on the Nasdaq, China Resources New Energy Holdings (CR New Energy) is looking to raise US$3.6bn on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, in what is likely to be mainland China's biggest IPO since 2022. The company produces electricity from solar and wind farms across China's 31 administrative divisions. The deal has generated strong interest among retail investors, after a crackdown aimed at limiting Chinese citizen's exposure to US markets coincided with the launch of the SpaceX IPO. The CR New Energy deal is already more than 680 times oversubscribed.
On the radar
The anniversary review of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade deal could raise concerns about regional economic stability, after suggestions from the US administration that the decades-old pact might not be renewed.
After voters in Switzerland rejected capping the population at 10 million in a referendum, debate will likely be fuelled as to whether the Swiss model of direct democracy might serve as a template for countries dealing with similar issues.
At the annual G7 Summit in France, leaders pledged to bolster Ukraine's air defences and tighten sanctions on Moscow. Despite reaffirmed support for Kyiv from the US, commentators are questioning whether this will be enough to bring the war to an end.