Markets remain in high spirits, with increasing confidence in a Fed rate cut in September. But elsewhere the backdrop is far from certain, with political risks rising in the US and Europe and a great deal riding on the second quarter earnings season.

AXA IM Select’s Lorna Denny sat down with J.P. Morgan’s Vincent Juvyns to discuss the aim of diversification in relation to investments and how this can help to keep a portfolio resilient during market ups and downs.

So far, 2024 has proved a little more complicated than markets were expecting. Jay Powell, chair of the US Federal Reserve warned consistently that US rates could stay ‘higher for longer’, and indeed they have, but elsewhere rate cuts could be imminent.

From six to two cuts… or even none. US rate cut expectations during 2024 have collapsed. Markets may now need to accept bigger swings in market sentiment.

Markets started the year in confident mood, betting that the US Federal Reserve would take the lead on interest rate cuts, with as many as six cuts in 2024. Those hopes have since faded and forecasts of a first cut in June are looking more uncertain. 

‘Fear of missing out’ has been a major catalyst driving markets higher in recent months. As we approach the end of the first quarter of 2024, we consider where that leaves the outlook for asset prices.

AXA IM Select’s Lorna Denny sat down with Patrick Brenner from Schroders to discuss the concept of investment risk, the different categories of risk investors should be aware of, as well as how these risks can be mitigated in a diversified portfolio. Concise and highly informative, it highlights some essential issues for consideration as well as providing investors with a helpful checklist.

It has been said many times that the last mile of disinflation is the most difficult. With markets betting on the timing of the first cut in interest rates, every monthly inflation number is both eagerly anticipated and closely analysed for clues.

This year, markets will remain transfixed by familiar stories: the path of inflation; how fast interest rates will fall from multi decade highs; and the potential for a growth slowdown. The returns for the year will likely pivot on how the reported data fall out.

Markets are approaching year end in confident mood, anticipating interest rate cuts in the first half of next year. Despite western central banks’ repetition of the ‘higher for longer’ mantra, hopes are rising over the timing of the first cut and how quickly rates will then fall.

Markets are hopeful that the threat of recession has faded, giving rise to a risk on rally. Indeed growth forecasts for the major economies are seeing consistent upward revisions.

Interest rate uncertainty has gripped the markets, after US jobs and inflation data beat expectations. A sharp rise in US Treasury bond yields has lowered the attractions of more highly valued equities.