Monthly Review - April 2026
In brief
The markets
10.4%
3.8%
8.9%
5.6%
7.1%
4.3%
2.0%
5.5%
6.6%
Source: Bloomberg 30.04.2026, returns in local currency
Top stories
Equities lead the rally
Equity markets rebounded strongly, after sharp falls in response to the outbreak of Middle East conflict. The S&P 500 touched new highs, demonstrating a belief that the gradual de-escalation of hostilities was well underway. Fears of rising inflation were outweighed by the promise of accelerating earnings growth. Not so for fixed income markets. Bond yields, which rise as bond prices fall, moved in lock-step with the price of crude oil. The US dollar gave up much of its ‘safe haven’ gains, while gold rallied somewhat after sharp falls in March.
All change at the Fed?
The appointment of Kevin Warsh as chair of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) moved closer to Senate approval, after the criminal case against the outgoing Jay Powell was dropped. Warsh testified before the Senate banking committee, confirming that, despite his own plans for reform at the world's top central bank, the Fed “must stay in its lane”. Meanwhile, the Fed's patient attitude in the face of geopolitical uncertainty, has likely encouraged global counterparts to moderate their views on rate hikes short term. The ECB (European Central Bank) now claims it has “the luxury to wait”.
Disappearing digital jobs
The social media platform Meta, one of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, announced 10% job cuts in order to “offset other investments”. Spending on AI this year is forecast at US$135 billion, as founder Mark Zuckerberg aims to create ‘personal superintelligence’. He has admitted lagging rivals such as OpenAI and Anthropic. Big tech rival Microsoft, meanwhile, announced that voluntary redundancy might affect 7% of its US workforce. Elsewhere, Anthropic's new Mythos AI tool sparked fears of an escalation of cyber crime. Its bug-busting capabilities could be exploited by hackers to develop autonomous attack agents, capable of operating at alarming speed.
Clean power surge
According to an independent report, fossil fuel output in 2025 fell for the first time since the pandemic, while clean energy generation grew faster than electricity demand. Underscoring the shift away from fossil fuels, renewable energy production outstripped output from coal-fired power stations. The report outlined a new structural reality, with the Middle East conflict only accelerating the adoption of clean energy, such as wind and solar power, amid government efforts to reduce energy supply risks. Separately, the report revealed China's exports of green technologies, including solar panels, lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles, reached a record high in March.
On the radar
Two months after conflict was sparked in the Middle East, a fragile ceasefire still persists. All eyes will be on the major protagonists, with peace talks apparently at a standstill, as well as developments in the oil market.
Amid hopes of a thawing in bilateral relations, the US President will travel to Beijing to meet the Chinese President in mid May. It will be the first such presidential trip to China since November 2017.
Observers will be closely monitoring any escalation in Sino-Japanese tensions. Japan's decision to allow weapons exports could spark further protests at home over an apparent departure from post-war pacifism.