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Monthly Review - November 2023

2 months ago

Quick look on
The Markets

November

8.9%

S&P 500

7.9%

EURO STOXX 50

1.8%

FTSE 100

6.2%

CAC 40

9.5%

DAX 30

5.1%

BEL 20

7.2%

FTSE MIB

11.5%

IBEX 35

5.4%

TOPIX
   
Source: Bloomberg 30.11.2023
Plateau rally

Plateau rally

Equity and bond markets enjoyed a surprisingly sharp rally. Why now? It’s all to do with the perception of softer messaging from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Markets have taken the ‘higher for longer’ interest rate plateau on board and are looking for the next move in rates to be downwards. Fed futures markets are betting on the first cut in the middle of next year. Bond markets reflect declining rate expectations with lower yields, meaning bond prices rose. And lower interest rates combined with resilient economic data are generally a good backdrop for equities. 

Oil not so good

Oil not so good 

Oil markets hit a slippery patch. Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the oil price dipped sharply towards $77 per barrel. Major oil producers, represented by OPEC+, believe that demand next year could drop significantly, despite widespread expectation of a softer economic landing. Their response was a plan to cut production further, ensuring supply would remain tight and allowing prices to pick up. This would not help in the fight against inflation, nor would it play well with President Joe Biden’s campaign, in the run up to next year’s US presidential elections.

Revolving doors

Revolving doors

The founder of OpenAI, Sam Altman, was abruptly fired by the board of the organisation, for reasons that were not made clear. It’s possible the OpenAI board, whose primary aim was stated as the benefit of humanity, were concerned about the race to commercialise technological advances before fully understanding their consequences. They have now made way for a new board, whose challenge will be to align innovation and profit with safety. Microsoft, OpenAI’s biggest backer, offered to hire Altman to head up their own AI initiative, before he was just as suddenly reinstated as CEO.

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