A full back catalogue of articles, podcasts, videos and useful materials from AXA IM Select and our global partners covering a variety of key topics on investments, multi-manager investing, financial markets, macroeconomics, ESG and Megatrends to aid your investment journey and broaden your knowledge.
Headline inflation rates accelerated modestly into year end, to be followed by early indicators of strengthening economic activity in January. Central banks warned financial markets against over optimism regarding the probability of rate cuts in the first quarter.
Central banks warned that financial markets might have become overly optimistic about the probability of rate cuts in the first quarter of this year, after headline inflation rates accelerated modestly in December followed by early indicators of economic activity strengthening in January.
It has been heralded as the biggest global election year in history. Over 60 countries are either confirmed or likely to be heading to the ballot boxes over the course of 2024, accounting for 48% of the world’s population.
US inflation continued to ease, reinforcing investor sentiment that the Fed was finally transitioning to a more dovish stance. The central bank indicated that interest rates were unlikely to rise further, and markets are pricing in 75 basis points of cuts during 2024.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) pivoted to a more dovish stance, with Fed chair Jay Powell indicating that US rates were now “likely at or near” their peak for this rate-hiking cycle. US policymakers are now forecasting 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2024, with more to follow in 2025.
Markets hailed the pivot point in interest rates, after dovish commentary from US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell. Expectations that rates would be cut multiple times in 2024 ignited a surge in financial markets.
There is an old saying that it is best to “keep your powder dry”. It is thought to have been said by English statesman Oliver Cromwell in the 17th century, while rallying his men as they went into battle.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.5% at its mid December meeting and Fed chair Jerome Powell surprised markets by stating that it is unlikely that rates will rise further. The European Central Bank (ECB) also left rates unchanged, while forecasting that their inflation target will be reached in 2025.
2023 was the year of the plateau, as western central banks declared that interest rates would remain higher for longer. Financial markets eventually eased into this new normal. Equity markets in Japan put in a stellar performance, after many years in the doldrums. We present the pick of the Quick Looks as the year unwound.
Inflation surprised on the downside. US inflation fell to 3.2% in October while early estimates showed eurozone inflation declined to 2.4% in November. UK inflation, recently stickier than most, slowed sharply to 4.6% in October, while the Chinese economy fell back into deflation with prices falling 0.2% year on year.
Equity and bond markets enjoyed a surprisingly sharp rally. Why now? It’s all to do with the perception of softer messaging from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Markets have taken the ‘higher for longer’ interest rate plateau on board and are looking for the next move in rates to be downwards.
The latest financial market strength has been fuelled by a growing belief that major economies could enjoy a soft landing. What does this mean? In essence, it is the view that they will avoid any predicted recession, instead gliding gently into a period of lower growth with fewer inflationary pressures.
Recent decades have brought a succession of unprecedented global events, leading some to view the world as in a state of ‘permacrisis’. Faced with exogenous shocks to their domestic economies, governments have resorted to increasing their borrowing to fund their way out of crisis after crisis.
So said the chair of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) with regard to the US economy. Despite the Fed’s best efforts, having raised interest rates by over 5 percentage points in only 18 months, the US economy appears irrepressible.
Inflation in the US remains high, signalling to many market participants that Fed interest rates will remain elevated and dashing hopes of substantial rate cuts in 2024. A narrowly avoided US government shutdown, averted at least until mid-November, added to the malaise. The European Central Bank raised rates for the 10th time in 14 months to a record high of 4%, but it signalled this was likely to be its final hike during the current cycle.