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Archinomics Weekly - Monday 13th September 2021

2 years ago

the
MARKETS

Equities

US equity markets turned more downbeat, on growth and inflation concerns. European markets also edged lower, pulled down by regional economic uncertainty. Major Asian markets outperformed, with Japan buoyed by fresh stimulus hopes, while China’s Shanghai Composite index rallied for the third successive week.

Bonds

US Treasury yields ended the week marginally higher, and prices slipped, in response to rising producer prices. In Europe, both core and peripheral bond yields also ended higher, after the adjustment to European Central Bank (ECB) monthly purchase plans. Investment grade corporate bonds saw heightened activity, with a daily record of new deals at the start of the week. In contrast, the high yield bond market was subdued, tracking developments in the equity markets.

Currencies

The US dollar reversed recent weakness, rising against all majors in response to a more uncertain global backdrop. The yen only managed to make ground against the euro, which was weaker across the board.

Commodities

The price of oil fell slightly, reflecting uncertainty as to the pace of the recovery in demand. Gold also fell, likely in response to the rising US dollar.

Responsible investing

The European Commission will launch green bonds for the first time in October. The bonds will fund environmental projects, with a targeted total of EUR 250 billion in the next five years.

MACROECONOMIC
UPDATE

President Biden and President Xi held only their second conference call, aimed at cooling tensions between the two superpowers.


ECB president Christine Lagarde outlined a reduction in the monthly bond buying programme, while insisting that ‘the lady isn’t tapering’.


China’s August trade data beat forecasts, despite the temporary closure of a key container port.

on the
RADAR

Inflation data from the US, Europe and the UK will be closely analysed for hints of a sustained rise in prices.


Industrial production data from China is expected to show a slowing rate of growth, in response to Covid lockdown measures.

Latest investment news

Market Snapshot - April 2024

Article | Investments | 03/05/2024

With US jobs growth remaining strong and inflation proving stickier than expected, speculation grew that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would delay cutting rates until the end of 2024.

Monthly Review - April 2024

Article | Investments | 02/05/2024

In agricultural commodity markets, cocoa soared after adverse weather brought a poor harvest, forcing chocolate prices higher. Among precious metals, gold hit successive record highs, responding to sticky US inflation and uncertainty over the path of interest rates. 

Will the Fed be the last to cut?

Article | Investments | 02/05/2024

Market expectations for US interest rate cuts have seen a sea change since the start of 2024. Confident forecasts of six quarter point cuts have shrunk to fewer than two cuts by year end. Some commentators even predict that rates will be forced to rise again, with options markets pricing a 20% chance of a rate hike. 

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