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Archinomics Weekly - Monday 9th August 2021

2 years ago

the
MARKETS

Equities

Major US indices set new record highs, with bank shares rising on higher bond yields, although energy shares lagged. European markets rose on strong corporate earnings reports, which also boosted Japanese indices, in spite of escalating Covid-19 cases. Chinese markets saw bargain hunting, after recent sharp falls.

Bonds

US Treasury bond yields climbed later in the week, and prices fell, after strong employment data, although demand for new issuance remained firm. Eurozone yields tracked lower, as the Delta variant spread. Investment grade credit markets weakened, while high yield bonds were supported by positive corporate earnings reports, particularly in the Eurozone.

Currencies

The US dollar firmed against all majors, as Treasury yields rose. Elsewhere, sterling held up against the euro and the yen, as the euro lost ground across the board and the yen was broadly unchanged.

Commodities

Oil saw volatile trading, suffering its sharpest weekly decline so far this year. Gold fell almost 3%, as bond yields moved higher.

Responsible investing

President Biden announced his target for electric vehicles to be 50% of new car sales in the US by 2030.

MACROECONOMIC
UPDATE

US July non-farm payrolls beat forecasts to come in at 943,000, while the unemployment rate fell from 5.9% to 5.4%.


China’s Q2 GDP growth rate fell to 7.9% y/y from 18.3% y/y in Q1, as consumption and services sectors disappointed expectations.


The Bank of England left policy rates unchanged, but outlined a clear pathway for the tapering of its bond buying programme, as rates eventually rise.

on the
RADAR

US July core CPI inflation is forecast to moderate slightly at 4.3%, still driven by pandemic recovery sectors.


The Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index looks likely to reinforce the moderating growth message seen in July PMI data.

Latest investment news

The View - asset allocation update

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The ‘higher for longer’ rate mantra and growing speculation that the US Federal Reserve would delay cutting interest rates until the end of 2024 undermined equity and bond returns in April. Fears that the Israel/Hamas conflict would spread to the wider region escalated, although the oil price was little changed by month end.

Market Snapshot - April 2024

Article | Investments | 03/05/2024

With US jobs growth remaining strong and inflation proving stickier than expected, speculation grew that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would delay cutting rates until the end of 2024.

Monthly Review - April 2024

Article | Investments | 02/05/2024

In agricultural commodity markets, cocoa soared after adverse weather brought a poor harvest, forcing chocolate prices higher. Among precious metals, gold hit successive record highs, responding to sticky US inflation and uncertainty over the path of interest rates. 

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