The US presidential election race is still too close to call. China rolled out further stimulus packages, more measures expected. Founder Elon Musk dreams big for Tesla, with future AI plans.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) pleased markets with a jumbo rate cut. ChatGPT developer OpenAI seeks new funds from big tech names. India’s stock market pulls ahead of China, rated by investable shares.

The popularity of passive investment funds, typically exchange listed index trackers, has grown over the past decades. These funds offer investors simple and straightforward access to financial markets at a low level of fees.

Financial markets whipsawed, after steep falls sparked by US recession fears were quickly recovered. Betting markets cranked up the odds of a September rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

President Biden dropped out as Democratic candidate for November’s US election, in favour of his Vice President Kamala Harris. US Q2 GDP data came in higher than expected at 2.8%, boosted by consumer spending and investment.

June was an eventful month, marked by elections in Europe, India, Mexico, and South Africa. Populist promises and fiscally loose plans have fuelled debate and raised the risk of re-igniting inflation.

Unexpected election results in India, Mexico and South Africa temporarily shook markets. In India, Narendra Modi secured a third term, but lost his parliamentary majority. 

We have already seen a deluge of elections this year. Unforeseen results in South Africa, Mexico and India have led to heightened volatility. The UK general election is imminent, and France has shocked financial markets with snap elections to be held in early July.

Nvidia, the designer of the microchips that enable the generative AI boom, briefly became the most valuable company in the world. As its valuation touched $3.3 trillion, the company overtook Microsoft and Apple to take pole position.

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates on hold, with chair Jay Powell indicating that patience is needed to “let restrictive policy do its work”. The minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting showed some policymakers favouring a rate hike, although Powell signalled such a move was unlikely.

May has been a month for elections, with India, Mexico and South Africa all going to the polls. For India, early results indicate a continuation of the status quo, while in Mexico the first female president was elected by a landslide.

Demand for tickets to attend Taylor Swift’s global concert tour, known as the Eras Tour, has hit unprecedented heights. The frenzy is such that the impact on local and even national economies can be significant. So much so, that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) made mention of the Philadelphia concerts in its Beige Book for June last year.

President Biden announced a big jump in tariffs on imports of clean tech products from China. This includes a doubling of tariffs on electric vehicles to 100% and a hike to 50% tariffs on solar panels. Biden’s $18 billion of tariffs adds to the $300 billion imposed under the Trump presidency.

The ‘higher for longer’ rate mantra and growing speculation that the US Federal Reserve would delay cutting interest rates until the end of 2024 undermined equity and bond returns in April. Fears that the Israel/Hamas conflict would spread to the wider region escalated, although the oil price was little changed by month end.

With US jobs growth remaining strong and inflation proving stickier than expected, speculation grew that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would delay cutting rates until the end of 2024.

In agricultural commodity markets, cocoa soared after adverse weather brought a poor harvest, forcing chocolate prices higher. Among precious metals, gold hit successive record highs, responding to sticky US inflation and uncertainty over the path of interest rates. 

Market expectations for US interest rate cuts have seen a sea change since the start of 2024. Confident forecasts of six quarter point cuts have shrunk to fewer than two cuts by year end. Some commentators even predict that rates will be forced to rise again, with options markets pricing a 20% chance of a rate hike. 

Key central banks suggested that rates would be cut this year and appeared less concerned about the possibility that inflation would rebound. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates on hold at its March meeting and maintained its guidance for three 25 bps rate cuts in 2024, with financial markets now readjusting to the Fed’s own projections.